Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Luxembourg
40%
Draw
33%
Bulgaria
27%
Actual result: Luxembourg 0 – 2 Bulgaria · Bulgaria winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Luxembourg, negative favours Bulgaria) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Luxembourg - Bulgaria)+0.25
Expected total goals1.98
Expected goals Luxembourg / Bulgaria1.12 / 0.86
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.9% / 60.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 59.9%
Over 2.5 goals 31.8%
Over 3.5 goals 13.9%
First half
First-half result (Luxembourg / draw / Bulgaria)28.6% / 50.7% / 20.7%
A goal in the first half58.3%
Two or more in the first half23.0%
Half-time then full-time
Luxembourg lead at half-time then Luxembourg win23.3%
Level at half-time then draw23.2%
Level at half-time then Luxembourg win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Luxembourg's side
Luxembourg −2.011.3%
Luxembourg −1.7514.2%
Luxembourg −1.517.1%
Luxembourg −1.2522.9%
Luxembourg −1.028.7%
Luxembourg −0.7534.4%
Luxembourg −0.540.2%
Luxembourg −0.2548.4%
Luxembourg draw no bet (0.0)56.6%
Luxembourg +0.2564.8%
Luxembourg +0.573.0%
Luxembourg +0.7577.4%
Luxembourg +1.081.8%
Luxembourg +1.590.6%
Luxembourg +2.094.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Luxembourg win2.49
Draw3.05
Bulgaria win3.71
Over 2.53.15
Under 2.51.47
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Luxembourg wins by more than 1 goals17%
Bulgaria wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%