Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Luxembourg
29%
Draw
31%
Iceland
40%
Actual result: Luxembourg 0 – 3 Iceland · Iceland winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Luxembourg, negative favours Iceland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Luxembourg - Iceland)-0.22
Expected total goals2.28
Expected goals Luxembourg / Iceland1.03 / 1.25
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.3% / 52.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.9%
Over 2.5 goals 39.9%
Over 3.5 goals 19.7%
First half
First-half result (Luxembourg / draw / Iceland)22.9% / 47.7% / 29.4%
A goal in the first half63.2%
Two or more in the first half28.4%
Half-time then full-time
Iceland lead at half-time then Iceland win23.6%
Level at half-time then draw20.5%
Luxembourg lead at half-time then Luxembourg win16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Luxembourg's side
Luxembourg −2.07.4%
Luxembourg −1.759.5%
Luxembourg −1.511.5%
Luxembourg −1.2515.9%
Luxembourg −1.020.3%
Luxembourg −0.7524.7%
Luxembourg −0.529.1%
Luxembourg −0.2536.9%
Luxembourg draw no bet (0.0)44.6%
Luxembourg +0.2552.4%
Luxembourg +0.560.1%
Luxembourg +0.7565.5%
Luxembourg +1.070.9%
Luxembourg +1.581.7%
Luxembourg +2.087.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Luxembourg win3.43
Draw3.23
Iceland win2.51
Over 2.52.50
Under 2.51.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Luxembourg wins by more than 1 goals12%
Iceland wins by more than 1 goals18%