Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mallorca
50%
Draw
29%
Sabadell
20%
Actual result: Mallorca 2 – 0 Sabadell · Mallorca winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mallorca, negative favours Sabadell) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mallorca - Sabadell)+0.61
Expected total goals2.23
Expected goals Mallorca / Sabadell1.42 / 0.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.1% / 56.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.3%
Over 2.5 goals 38.4%
Over 3.5 goals 18.6%
First half
First-half result (Mallorca / draw / Sabadell)35.5% / 47.3% / 17.2%
A goal in the first half62.5%
Two or more in the first half27.2%
Half-time then full-time
Mallorca lead at half-time then Mallorca win30.5%
Level at half-time then draw20.0%
Level at half-time then Mallorca win18.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mallorca's side
Mallorca −2.017.6%
Mallorca −1.7521.5%
Mallorca −1.525.4%
Mallorca −1.2531.6%
Mallorca −1.037.8%
Mallorca −0.7544.0%
Mallorca −0.550.2%
Mallorca −0.2557.6%
Mallorca draw no bet (0.0)64.9%
Mallorca +0.2572.3%
Mallorca +0.579.7%
Mallorca +0.7583.1%
Mallorca +1.086.5%
Mallorca +1.593.4%
Mallorca +2.095.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mallorca win1.99
Draw3.40
Sabadell win4.92
Over 2.52.60
Under 2.51.62
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mallorca wins by more than 1 goals25%
Sabadell wins by more than 1 goals7%