Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Malmo FF
56%
Draw
24%
AIK
20%
Actual result: Malmo FF 0 – 0 AIK · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Malmo FF, negative favours AIK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Malmo FF - AIK)+0.84
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Malmo FF / AIK1.91 / 1.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.8% / 43.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.6%
Over 2.5 goals 57.2%
Over 3.5 goals 34.8%
First half
First-half result (Malmo FF / draw / AIK)41.5% / 39.9% / 18.6%
A goal in the first half72.9%
Two or more in the first half39.6%
Half-time then full-time
Malmo FF lead at half-time then Malmo FF win35.8%
Level at half-time then Malmo FF win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw14.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Malmo FF's side
Malmo FF −2.024.7%
Malmo FF −1.7529.0%
Malmo FF −1.533.4%
Malmo FF −1.2539.1%
Malmo FF −1.044.8%
Malmo FF −0.7550.5%
Malmo FF −0.556.2%
Malmo FF −0.2562.1%
Malmo FF draw no bet (0.0)68.1%
Malmo FF +0.2574.0%
Malmo FF +0.580.0%
Malmo FF +0.7583.1%
Malmo FF +1.086.2%
Malmo FF +1.592.4%
Malmo FF +2.095.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Malmo FF win1.78
Draw4.20
AIK win5.00
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Malmo FF wins by more than 1 goals33%
AIK wins by more than 1 goals8%