Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Malmo FF
52%
Draw
27%
Kalmar FF
21%
Actual result: Malmo FF 1 – 0 Kalmar FF · Malmo FF winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Malmo FF, negative favours Kalmar FF) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Malmo FF - Kalmar FF)+0.67
Expected total goals2.63
Expected goals Malmo FF / Kalmar FF1.65 / 0.98
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.8% / 48.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.2%
Over 2.5 goals 48.8%
Over 3.5 goals 27.0%
First half
First-half result (Malmo FF / draw / Kalmar FF)37.6% / 44.0% / 18.4%
A goal in the first half68.1%
Two or more in the first half34.3%
Half-time then full-time
Malmo FF lead at half-time then Malmo FF win32.2%
Level at half-time then Malmo FF win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Malmo FF's side
Malmo FF −2.020.5%
Malmo FF −1.7524.5%
Malmo FF −1.528.6%
Malmo FF −1.2534.4%
Malmo FF −1.040.1%
Malmo FF −0.7545.9%
Malmo FF −0.551.7%
Malmo FF −0.2558.5%
Malmo FF draw no bet (0.0)65.4%
Malmo FF +0.2572.2%
Malmo FF +0.579.1%
Malmo FF +0.7582.3%
Malmo FF +1.085.6%
Malmo FF +1.592.2%
Malmo FF +2.095.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Malmo FF win1.94
Draw3.65
Kalmar FF win4.78
Over 2.52.05
Under 2.51.95
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Malmo FF wins by more than 1 goals29%
Kalmar FF wins by more than 1 goals8%