Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Malta
76%
Draw
17%
Gibraltar
7%
Actual result: Malta 1 – 1 Gibraltar · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 17%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Malta, negative favours Gibraltar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Malta - Gibraltar)+1.61
Expected total goals2.47
Expected goals Malta / Gibraltar2.04 / 0.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)30.3% / 69.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.5%
Over 2.5 goals 45.0%
Over 3.5 goals 23.7%
First half
First-half result (Malta / draw / Gibraltar)53.6% / 38.5% / 7.9%
A goal in the first half67.4%
Two or more in the first half30.4%
Half-time then full-time
Malta lead at half-time then Malta win50.7%
Level at half-time then Malta win22.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Malta's side
Malta −2.038.0%
Malta −1.7543.8%
Malta −1.549.6%
Malta −1.2556.2%
Malta −1.062.8%
Malta −0.7569.3%
Malta −0.575.9%
Malta −0.2580.2%
Malta draw no bet (0.0)84.5%
Malta +0.2588.7%
Malta +0.593.0%
Malta +0.7594.5%
Malta +1.095.9%
Malta +1.598.8%
Malta +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Malta win1.32
Draw5.84
Gibraltar win14.31
Over 2.52.22
Under 2.51.82
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Malta wins by more than 1 goals50%
Gibraltar wins by more than 1 goals1%