Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Man City
86%
Draw
9%
Norwich
5%
Actual result: Man City 5 – 0 Norwich · Man City winJarvis gave this outcome: 86% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Man City, negative favours Norwich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Man City - Norwich)+2.43
Expected total goals3.61
Expected goals Man City / Norwich3.02 / 0.59
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.6% / 58.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.8%
Over 2.5 goals 69.9%
Over 3.5 goals 48.7%
First half
First-half result (Man City / draw / Norwich)66.6% / 25.1% / 8.2%
A goal in the first half81.5%
Two or more in the first half47.2%
Half-time then full-time
Man City lead at half-time then Man City win63.8%
Level at half-time then Man City win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw5.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Man City's side
Man City −2.056.7%
Man City −1.7562.0%
Man City −1.567.4%
Man City −1.2572.1%
Man City −1.076.8%
Man City −0.7581.5%
Man City −0.586.2%
Man City −0.2588.3%
Man City draw no bet (0.0)90.4%
Man City +0.2592.6%
Man City +0.594.7%
Man City +0.7595.8%
Man City +1.096.9%
Man City +1.599.0%
Man City +2.099.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Man City win1.16
Draw11.67
Norwich win18.95
Over 2.51.43
Under 2.53.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Man City wins by more than 1 goals67%
Norwich wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards1.5
2.5+ cards in the match20%