Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mexico
34%
Draw
30%
Colombia
36%
Actual result: Mexico 1 – 1 Colombia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mexico, negative favours Colombia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mexico - Colombia)-0.02
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals Mexico / Colombia1.04 / 1.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.5% / 57.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 62.3%
Over 2.5 goals 35.2%
Over 3.5 goals 16.3%
First half
First-half result (Mexico / draw / Colombia)25.6% / 48.0% / 26.3%
A goal in the first half61.2%
Two or more in the first half24.6%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw20.6%
Colombia lead at half-time then Colombia win20.2%
Mexico lead at half-time then Mexico win19.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mexico's side
Mexico −2.08.6%
Mexico −1.7511.0%
Mexico −1.513.3%
Mexico −1.2518.6%
Mexico −1.023.8%
Mexico −0.7529.1%
Mexico −0.534.4%
Mexico −0.2541.9%
Mexico draw no bet (0.0)49.4%
Mexico +0.2556.9%
Mexico +0.564.4%
Mexico +0.7569.8%
Mexico +1.075.2%
Mexico +1.585.9%
Mexico +2.090.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mexico win2.91
Draw3.33
Colombia win2.81
Over 2.52.84
Under 2.51.54
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mexico wins by more than 1 goals13%
Colombia wins by more than 1 goals14%