Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mexico
69%
Draw
21%
South Africa
11%
Actual result: Mexico 2 – 0 South Africa · Mexico winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mexico, negative favours South Africa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mexico - South Africa)+1.31
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Mexico / South Africa1.90 / 0.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)38.2% / 61.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.3%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Mexico / draw / South Africa)48.5% / 40.4% / 11.1%
A goal in the first half67.5%
Two or more in the first half31.0%
Half-time then full-time
Mexico lead at half-time then Mexico win44.7%
Level at half-time then Mexico win21.7%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mexico's side
Mexico −2.031.6%
Mexico −1.7537.0%
Mexico −1.542.3%
Mexico −1.2548.9%
Mexico −1.055.5%
Mexico −0.7562.1%
Mexico −0.568.7%
Mexico −0.2573.8%
Mexico draw no bet (0.0)78.9%
Mexico +0.2584.1%
Mexico +0.589.2%
Mexico +0.7591.3%
Mexico +1.093.3%
Mexico +1.597.5%
Mexico +2.098.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mexico win1.46
Draw4.87
South Africa win9.26
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
15.6%
2–0
14.9%
3–0
9.4%
1–1
9.3%
2–1
8.9%
0–0
8.2%
Goal margin
Mexico wins by more than 1 goals42%
South Africa wins by more than 1 goals3%