Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Middlesbrough
67%
Draw
20%
Millwall
13%
Actual result: Middlesbrough 2 – 2 Millwall · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Middlesbrough, negative favours Millwall) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Middlesbrough - Millwall)+1.34
Expected total goals3.15
Expected goals Middlesbrough / Millwall2.24 / 0.90
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.7% / 46.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.7%
Over 2.5 goals 60.9%
Over 3.5 goals 38.6%
First half
First-half result (Middlesbrough / draw / Millwall)49.4% / 36.6% / 14.0%
A goal in the first half75.1%
Two or more in the first half42.0%
Half-time then full-time
Middlesbrough lead at half-time then Middlesbrough win44.8%
Level at half-time then Middlesbrough win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw11.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Middlesbrough's side
Middlesbrough −2.034.3%
Middlesbrough −1.7539.3%
Middlesbrough −1.544.4%
Middlesbrough −1.2550.1%
Middlesbrough −1.055.8%
Middlesbrough −0.7561.5%
Middlesbrough −0.567.2%
Middlesbrough −0.2572.1%
Middlesbrough draw no bet (0.0)77.0%
Middlesbrough +0.2581.9%
Middlesbrough +0.586.8%
Middlesbrough +0.7589.1%
Middlesbrough +1.091.3%
Middlesbrough +1.595.7%
Middlesbrough +2.097.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Middlesbrough win1.49
Draw5.08
Millwall win7.60
Over 2.51.64
Under 2.52.56
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Middlesbrough wins by more than 1 goals44%
Millwall wins by more than 1 goals4%