Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Middlesbrough
58%
Wrexham
19%
Actual result: Middlesbrough 1 – 0 Wrexham · Middlesbrough winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Middlesbrough, negative favours Wrexham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Middlesbrough - Wrexham)+0.91
Expected total goals2.84
Expected goals Middlesbrough / Wrexham1.88 / 0.96
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.8% / 47.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.0%
Over 2.5 goals 54.0%
Over 3.5 goals 31.7%
First half
First-half result (Middlesbrough / draw / Wrexham)42.7% / 40.0% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half71.7%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
Middlesbrough lead at half-time then Middlesbrough win37.2%
Level at half-time then Middlesbrough win18.7%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Middlesbrough's side
Middlesbrough −2.025.4%
Middlesbrough −1.7529.9%
Middlesbrough −1.534.4%
Middlesbrough −1.2540.4%
Middlesbrough −1.046.3%
Middlesbrough −0.7552.3%
Middlesbrough −0.558.3%
Middlesbrough −0.2564.1%
Middlesbrough draw no bet (0.0)69.9%
Middlesbrough +0.2575.7%
Middlesbrough +0.581.5%
Middlesbrough +0.7584.5%
Middlesbrough +1.087.5%
Middlesbrough +1.593.5%
Middlesbrough +2.095.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Middlesbrough win1.72
Draw4.31
Wrexham win5.40
Over 2.51.85
Under 2.52.17
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Middlesbrough wins by more than 1 goals34%
Wrexham wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match42%
