Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Midtjylland
48%
Draw
24%
FC Nordsjaelland
28%
Actual result: Midtjylland 2 – 2 FC Nordsjaelland · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Midtjylland, negative favours FC Nordsjaelland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Midtjylland - FC Nordsjaelland)+0.50
Expected total goals3.41
Expected goals Midtjylland / FC Nordsjaelland1.95 / 1.45
Both teams to score (yes / no)66.8% / 33.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.4%
Over 2.5 goals 66.1%
Over 3.5 goals 44.3%
First half
First-half result (Midtjylland / draw / FC Nordsjaelland)37.2% / 38.6% / 24.2%
A goal in the first half77.1%
Two or more in the first half46.6%
Half-time then full-time
Midtjylland lead at half-time then Midtjylland win30.3%
FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time then FC Nordsjaelland win16.3%
Level at half-time then Midtjylland win15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Midtjylland's side
Midtjylland −2.020.7%
Midtjylland −1.7524.4%
Midtjylland −1.528.1%
Midtjylland −1.2533.1%
Midtjylland −1.038.2%
Midtjylland −0.7543.2%
Midtjylland −0.548.3%
Midtjylland −0.2554.3%
Midtjylland draw no bet (0.0)60.3%
Midtjylland +0.2566.3%
Midtjylland +0.572.3%
Midtjylland +0.7575.9%
Midtjylland +1.079.6%
Midtjylland +1.587.0%
Midtjylland +2.091.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Midtjylland win2.07
Draw4.17
FC Nordsjaelland win3.60
Over 2.51.51
Under 2.52.95
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Midtjylland wins by more than 1 goals28%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by more than 1 goals13%