Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Millwall
49%
Draw
28%
Bolton
23%
Actual result: Millwall 4 – 0 Bolton · Millwall winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Millwall, negative favours Bolton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Millwall - Bolton)+0.57
Expected total goals2.63
Expected goals Millwall / Bolton1.60 / 1.03
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.8% / 47.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.3%
Over 2.5 goals 49.0%
Over 3.5 goals 27.2%
First half
First-half result (Millwall / draw / Bolton)36.1% / 44.1% / 19.8%
A goal in the first half68.3%
Two or more in the first half34.4%
Half-time then full-time
Millwall lead at half-time then Millwall win30.4%
Level at half-time then draw17.4%
Level at half-time then Millwall win17.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Millwall's side
Millwall −2.018.9%
Millwall −1.7522.7%
Millwall −1.526.6%
Millwall −1.2532.2%
Millwall −1.037.9%
Millwall −0.7543.6%
Millwall −0.549.2%
Millwall −0.2556.2%
Millwall draw no bet (0.0)63.1%
Millwall +0.2570.0%
Millwall +0.576.9%
Millwall +0.7580.5%
Millwall +1.084.0%
Millwall +1.591.0%
Millwall +2.094.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Millwall win2.03
Draw3.61
Bolton win4.34
Over 2.52.04
Under 2.51.96
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Millwall wins by more than 1 goals27%
Bolton wins by more than 1 goals9%