Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Millwall
13%
Draw
21%
Newcastle
66%
Actual result: Millwall 0 – 1 Newcastle · Newcastle winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Millwall, negative favours Newcastle) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Millwall - Newcastle)-1.30
Expected total goals3.01
Expected goals Millwall / Newcastle0.85 / 2.16
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.6% / 48.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.1%
Over 2.5 goals 58.0%
Over 3.5 goals 35.6%
First half
First-half result (Millwall / draw / Newcastle)13.5% / 38.0% / 48.5%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half40.1%
Half-time then full-time
Newcastle lead at half-time then Newcastle win44.1%
Level at half-time then Newcastle win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw12.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Millwall's side
Millwall −2.02.6%
Millwall −1.753.4%
Millwall −1.54.2%
Millwall −1.256.3%
Millwall −1.08.5%
Millwall −0.7510.7%
Millwall −0.512.8%
Millwall −0.2518.0%
Millwall draw no bet (0.0)23.2%
Millwall +0.2528.4%
Millwall +0.533.5%
Millwall +0.7539.3%
Millwall +1.045.1%
Millwall +1.556.7%
Millwall +2.066.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Millwall win7.79
Draw4.83
Newcastle win1.50
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.38
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Millwall wins by more than 1 goals4%
Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals43%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.9
2.5+ cards in the match54%