Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mirassol
49%
Gremio
22%
Actual result: Mirassol 2 – 1 Gremio · Mirassol winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mirassol, negative favours Gremio) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mirassol - Gremio)+0.54
Expected total goals2.32
Expected goals Mirassol / Gremio1.43 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.9% / 54.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.5%
Over 2.5 goals 41.1%
Over 3.5 goals 20.6%
First half
First-half result (Mirassol / draw / Gremio)34.9% / 46.3% / 18.8%
A goal in the first half64.2%
Two or more in the first half28.8%
Half-time then full-time
Mirassol lead at half-time then Mirassol win29.5%
Level at half-time then draw19.2%
Level at half-time then Mirassol win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mirassol's side
Mirassol −2.017.1%
Mirassol −1.7520.8%
Mirassol −1.524.6%
Mirassol −1.2530.6%
Mirassol −1.036.7%
Mirassol −0.7542.7%
Mirassol −0.548.7%
Mirassol −0.2555.9%
Mirassol draw no bet (0.0)63.1%
Mirassol +0.2570.4%
Mirassol +0.577.6%
Mirassol +0.7581.2%
Mirassol +1.084.9%
Mirassol +1.592.2%
Mirassol +2.095.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mirassol win2.05
Draw3.46
Gremio win4.46
Over 2.52.44
Under 2.51.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mirassol wins by more than 1 goals25%
Gremio wins by more than 1 goals8%
