Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mjallby
19%
Draw
23%
Djurgardens
58%
Actual result: Mjallby 0 – 2 Djurgardens · Djurgardens winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mjallby, negative favours Djurgardens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mjallby - Djurgardens)-0.91
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Mjallby / Djurgardens1.04 / 1.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.0% / 44.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 57.3%
Over 3.5 goals 34.9%
First half
First-half result (Mjallby / draw / Djurgardens)18.0% / 39.3% / 42.7%
A goal in the first half73.2%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Djurgardens lead at half-time then Djurgardens win37.1%
Level at half-time then Djurgardens win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw13.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mjallby's side
Mjallby −2.04.5%
Mjallby −1.755.8%
Mjallby −1.57.0%
Mjallby −1.2510.0%
Mjallby −1.013.0%
Mjallby −0.7516.0%
Mjallby −0.519.0%
Mjallby −0.2524.8%
Mjallby draw no bet (0.0)30.6%
Mjallby +0.2536.4%
Mjallby +0.542.1%
Mjallby +0.7547.9%
Mjallby +1.053.7%
Mjallby +1.565.2%
Mjallby +2.074.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mjallby win5.25
Draw4.33
Djurgardens win1.73
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mjallby wins by more than 1 goals7%
Djurgardens wins by more than 1 goals35%