Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mjallby
38%
Draw
29%
IFK Goteborg
33%
Actual result: Mjallby 1 – 4 IFK Goteborg · IFK Goteborg winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mjallby, negative favours IFK Goteborg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mjallby - IFK Goteborg)+0.12
Expected total goals2.75
Expected goals Mjallby / IFK Goteborg1.43 / 1.31
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.3% / 42.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.6%
Over 2.5 goals 51.8%
Over 3.5 goals 29.6%
First half
First-half result (Mjallby / draw / IFK Goteborg)29.5% / 44.2% / 26.2%
A goal in the first half69.4%
Two or more in the first half36.5%
Half-time then full-time
Mjallby lead at half-time then Mjallby win23.0%
IFK Goteborg lead at half-time then IFK Goteborg win19.4%
Level at half-time then draw17.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mjallby's side
Mjallby −2.013.0%
Mjallby −1.7516.0%
Mjallby −1.518.9%
Mjallby −1.2523.8%
Mjallby −1.028.6%
Mjallby −0.7533.5%
Mjallby −0.538.3%
Mjallby −0.2545.5%
Mjallby draw no bet (0.0)52.7%
Mjallby +0.2559.9%
Mjallby +0.567.1%
Mjallby +0.7571.5%
Mjallby +1.075.9%
Mjallby +1.584.7%
Mjallby +2.089.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mjallby win2.61
Draw3.47
IFK Goteborg win3.04
Over 2.51.93
Under 2.52.07
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Mjallby wins by more than 1 goals19%
IFK Goteborg wins by more than 1 goals15%