Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Moldova
11%
Draw
21%
Slovakia
69%
Actual result: Moldova 0 – 4 Slovakia · Slovakia winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Moldova, negative favours Slovakia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Moldova - Slovakia)-1.34
Expected total goals2.67
Expected goals Moldova / Slovakia0.67 / 2.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.4% / 57.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.9%
Over 2.5 goals 49.9%
Over 3.5 goals 27.9%
First half
First-half result (Moldova / draw / Slovakia)11.6% / 39.5% / 49.0%
A goal in the first half69.6%
Two or more in the first half34.1%
Half-time then full-time
Slovakia lead at half-time then Slovakia win45.1%
Level at half-time then Slovakia win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw13.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Moldova's side
Moldova −2.01.7%
Moldova −1.752.3%
Moldova −1.52.9%
Moldova −1.254.9%
Moldova −1.06.9%
Moldova −0.758.9%
Moldova −0.511.0%
Moldova −0.2516.1%
Moldova draw no bet (0.0)21.2%
Moldova +0.2526.4%
Moldova +0.531.5%
Moldova +0.7537.7%
Moldova +1.044.0%
Moldova +1.556.5%
Moldova +2.067.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Moldova win9.13
Draw4.87
Slovakia win1.46
Over 2.52.01
Under 2.51.99
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Moldova wins by more than 1 goals3%
Slovakia wins by more than 1 goals43%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%