Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Montenegro
69%
Draw
19%
Armenia
12%
Actual result: Montenegro 0 – 0 Armenia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 19%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Montenegro, negative favours Armenia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Montenegro - Armenia)+1.36
Expected total goals2.93
Expected goals Montenegro / Armenia2.14 / 0.78
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.1% / 51.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.1%
Over 2.5 goals 56.1%
Over 3.5 goals 33.7%
First half
First-half result (Montenegro / draw / Armenia)49.9% / 37.0% / 13.1%
A goal in the first half73.1%
Two or more in the first half38.1%
Half-time then full-time
Montenegro lead at half-time then Montenegro win45.5%
Level at half-time then Montenegro win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw11.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Montenegro's side
Montenegro −2.034.1%
Montenegro −1.7539.3%
Montenegro −1.544.5%
Montenegro −1.2550.5%
Montenegro −1.056.5%
Montenegro −0.7562.5%
Montenegro −0.568.5%
Montenegro −0.2573.3%
Montenegro draw no bet (0.0)78.1%
Montenegro +0.2582.9%
Montenegro +0.587.7%
Montenegro +0.7589.9%
Montenegro +1.092.1%
Montenegro +1.596.4%
Montenegro +2.097.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Montenegro win1.46
Draw5.22
Armenia win8.14
Over 2.51.78
Under 2.52.28
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Montenegro wins by more than 1 goals44%
Armenia wins by more than 1 goals4%