Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Montenegro
58%
Draw
26%
Cyprus
16%
Actual result: Montenegro 2 – 1 Cyprus · Montenegro winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Montenegro, negative favours Cyprus) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Montenegro - Cyprus)+0.92
Expected total goals2.43
Expected goals Montenegro / Cyprus1.67 / 0.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.2% / 55.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.8%
Over 2.5 goals 43.9%
Over 3.5 goals 22.8%
First half
First-half result (Montenegro / draw / Cyprus)41.3% / 44.1% / 14.6%
A goal in the first half65.8%
Two or more in the first half30.7%
Half-time then full-time
Montenegro lead at half-time then Montenegro win36.7%
Level at half-time then Montenegro win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Montenegro's side
Montenegro −2.023.8%
Montenegro −1.7528.4%
Montenegro −1.533.0%
Montenegro −1.2539.4%
Montenegro −1.045.7%
Montenegro −0.7552.0%
Montenegro −0.558.3%
Montenegro −0.2564.8%
Montenegro draw no bet (0.0)71.3%
Montenegro +0.2577.7%
Montenegro +0.584.2%
Montenegro +0.7587.0%
Montenegro +1.089.7%
Montenegro +1.595.2%
Montenegro +2.097.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Montenegro win1.71
Draw3.86
Cyprus win6.34
Over 2.52.28
Under 2.51.78
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Montenegro wins by more than 1 goals33%
Cyprus wins by more than 1 goals5%