Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Montpellier
61%
Draw
26%
Grenoble
13%
Actual result: Montpellier 2 – 0 Grenoble · Montpellier winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Montpellier, negative favours Grenoble) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Montpellier - Grenoble)+1.04
Expected total goals2.38
Expected goals Montpellier / Grenoble1.71 / 0.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.3% / 58.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.9%
Over 2.5 goals 42.5%
Over 3.5 goals 21.7%
First half
First-half result (Montpellier / draw / Grenoble)42.9% / 44.5% / 12.6%
A goal in the first half64.8%
Two or more in the first half29.9%
Half-time then full-time
Montpellier lead at half-time then Montpellier win38.9%
Level at half-time then Montpellier win21.2%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Montpellier's side
Montpellier −2.025.8%
Montpellier −1.7530.7%
Montpellier −1.535.6%
Montpellier −1.2542.0%
Montpellier −1.048.4%
Montpellier −0.7554.7%
Montpellier −0.561.1%
Montpellier −0.2567.6%
Montpellier draw no bet (0.0)74.0%
Montpellier +0.2580.5%
Montpellier +0.586.9%
Montpellier +0.7589.3%
Montpellier +1.091.6%
Montpellier +1.596.3%
Montpellier +2.097.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Montpellier win1.64
Draw3.88
Grenoble win7.65
Over 2.52.35
Under 2.51.74
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Montpellier wins by more than 1 goals36%
Grenoble wins by more than 1 goals4%