Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Moreirense
4%
Draw
10%
Benfica
85%
Actual result: Moreirense 0 – 4 Benfica · Benfica winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Moreirense, negative favours Benfica) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Moreirense - Benfica)-2.39
Expected total goals3.47
Expected goals Moreirense / Benfica0.54 / 2.93
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.2% / 60.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.0%
Over 2.5 goals 67.3%
Over 3.5 goals 45.6%
First half
First-half result (Moreirense / draw / Benfica)6.7% / 28.1% / 65.2%
A goal in the first half79.1%
Two or more in the first half46.1%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win62.9%
Level at half-time then Benfica win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw6.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Moreirense's side
Moreirense −2.00.5%
Moreirense −1.750.7%
Moreirense −1.50.9%
Moreirense −1.251.7%
Moreirense −1.02.6%
Moreirense −0.753.4%
Moreirense −0.54.3%
Moreirense −0.256.9%
Moreirense draw no bet (0.0)9.4%
Moreirense +0.2512.0%
Moreirense +0.514.5%
Moreirense +0.7519.2%
Moreirense +1.023.8%
Moreirense +1.533.1%
Moreirense +2.044.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Moreirense win23.20
Draw9.79
Benfica win1.17
Over 2.51.49
Under 2.53.06
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Moreirense wins by more than 1 goals1%
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals67%