Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Napoli
52%
Draw
28%
Bologna
20%
Actual result: Napoli 1 – 0 Bologna · Napoli winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Napoli, negative favours Bologna) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Napoli - Bologna)+0.66
Expected total goals2.23
Expected goals Napoli / Bologna1.44 / 0.79
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.4% / 57.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 66.1%
Over 2.5 goals 38.6%
Over 3.5 goals 18.7%
First half
First-half result (Napoli / draw / Bologna)36.6% / 46.6% / 16.8%
A goal in the first half62.9%
Two or more in the first half27.1%
Half-time then full-time
Napoli lead at half-time then Napoli win31.6%
Level at half-time then draw19.3%
Level at half-time then Napoli win18.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Napoli's side
Napoli −2.018.4%
Napoli −1.7522.5%
Napoli −1.526.5%
Napoli −1.2532.8%
Napoli −1.039.2%
Napoli −0.7545.5%
Napoli −0.551.9%
Napoli −0.2559.0%
Napoli draw no bet (0.0)66.1%
Napoli +0.2573.2%
Napoli +0.580.3%
Napoli +0.7583.7%
Napoli +1.087.0%
Napoli +1.593.8%
Napoli +2.096.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Napoli win1.93
Draw3.52
Bologna win5.07
Over 2.52.59
Under 2.51.63
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Napoli wins by more than 1 goals26%
Bologna wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%