Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Netherlands
35%
Draw
26%
Germany
39%
Actual result: Netherlands 1 – 1 Germany · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Netherlands, negative favours Germany) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Netherlands - Germany)-0.09
Expected total goals3.37
Expected goals Netherlands / Germany1.64 / 1.73
Both teams to score (yes / no)68.2% / 31.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.8%
Over 2.5 goals 65.5%
Over 3.5 goals 43.6%
First half
First-half result (Netherlands / draw / Germany)28.2% / 41.2% / 30.6%
A goal in the first half75.7%
Two or more in the first half47.2%
Half-time then full-time
Germany lead at half-time then Germany win23.6%
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win21.0%
Level at half-time then draw15.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Netherlands's side
Netherlands −2.012.9%
Netherlands −1.7515.6%
Netherlands −1.518.3%
Netherlands −1.2522.5%
Netherlands −1.026.6%
Netherlands −0.7530.8%
Netherlands −0.534.9%
Netherlands −0.2541.5%
Netherlands draw no bet (0.0)48.1%
Netherlands +0.2554.7%
Netherlands +0.561.3%
Netherlands +0.7565.7%
Netherlands +1.070.1%
Netherlands +1.578.9%
Netherlands +2.085.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Netherlands win2.86
Draw3.79
Germany win2.58
Over 2.51.53
Under 2.52.90
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals18%
Germany wins by more than 1 goals21%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%