Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Netherlands
82%
Draw
11%
Serbia
6%
Actual result: Netherlands 2 – 1 Serbia · Netherlands winJarvis gave this outcome: 82% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Netherlands, negative favours Serbia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Netherlands - Serbia)+2.22
Expected total goals3.67
Expected goals Netherlands / Serbia2.94 / 0.73
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.9%
Over 2.5 goals 71.0%
Over 3.5 goals 50.0%
First half
First-half result (Netherlands / draw / Serbia)62.8% / 27.9% / 9.3%
A goal in the first half81.1%
Two or more in the first half48.9%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands lead at half-time then Netherlands win59.7%
Level at half-time then Netherlands win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw6.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Netherlands's side
Netherlands −2.052.4%
Netherlands −1.7557.7%
Netherlands −1.563.1%
Netherlands −1.2567.8%
Netherlands −1.072.6%
Netherlands −0.7577.4%
Netherlands −0.582.2%
Netherlands −0.2585.0%
Netherlands draw no bet (0.0)87.8%
Netherlands +0.2590.7%
Netherlands +0.593.5%
Netherlands +0.7594.7%
Netherlands +1.095.9%
Netherlands +1.598.4%
Netherlands +2.099.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Netherlands win1.22
Draw8.82
Serbia win15.41
Over 2.51.41
Under 2.53.44
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals63%
Serbia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%