Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
New York City
56%
Toronto FC
18%
Actual result: New York City 1 – 1 Toronto FC · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours New York City, negative favours Toronto FC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (New York City - Toronto FC)+0.85
Expected total goals2.75
Expected goals New York City / Toronto FC1.80 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.4% / 47.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.2%
Over 2.5 goals 51.8%
Over 3.5 goals 29.7%
First half
First-half result (New York City / draw / Toronto FC)40.8% / 42.2% / 16.9%
A goal in the first half69.8%
Two or more in the first half36.2%
Half-time then full-time
New York City lead at half-time then New York City win35.7%
Level at half-time then New York City win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from New York City's side
New York City −2.024.0%
New York City −1.7528.4%
New York City −1.532.8%
New York City −1.2538.7%
New York City −1.044.5%
New York City −0.7550.4%
New York City −0.556.2%
New York City −0.2562.6%
New York City draw no bet (0.0)68.9%
New York City +0.2575.3%
New York City +0.581.7%
New York City +0.7584.6%
New York City +1.087.5%
New York City +1.593.4%
New York City +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
New York City win1.78
Draw3.93
Toronto FC win5.45
Over 2.51.93
Under 2.52.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
New York City wins by more than 1 goals33%
Toronto FC wins by more than 1 goals7%
