Argentinian Primera Division

Newells vs Boca Juniors prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Newells vs Boca Juniors (Argentinian Primera Division), 03/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Newells 21%, the draw 31% and Boca Juniors 48%; the actual result had a 31% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 1.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Newells

21%

Draw

31%

Boca Juniors

48%

Actual result: Newells 2 – 2 Boca Juniors · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Newells, negative favours Boca Juniors) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Newells - Boca Juniors)-0.52

Expected total goals1.92

Expected goals Newells / Boca Juniors0.70 / 1.22

Both teams to score (yes / no)35.9% / 64.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 57.6%

Over 2.5 goals 30.1%

Over 3.5 goals 12.8%

First half

First-half result (Newells / draw / Boca Juniors)16.5% / 50.4% / 33.0%

A goal in the first half57.5%

Two or more in the first half21.7%

Half-time then full-time

Boca Juniors lead at half-time then Boca Juniors win28.4%

Level at half-time then draw22.8%

Level at half-time then Boca Juniors win18.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Newells's side

Newells −2.03.6%

Newells −1.754.7%

Newells −1.55.9%

Newells −1.259.6%

Newells −1.013.3%

Newells −0.7517.0%

Newells −0.520.7%

Newells −0.2528.5%

Newells draw no bet (0.0)36.3%

Newells +0.2544.0%

Newells +0.551.8%

Newells +0.7558.4%

Newells +1.065.0%

Newells +1.578.1%

Newells +2.085.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Newells win4.84

Draw3.21

Boca Juniors win2.08

Over 2.53.33

Under 2.51.43

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Newells wins by more than 1 goals6%

Boca Juniors wins by more than 1 goals22%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match