Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
North Macedonia
15%
Draw
27%
Scotland
58%
Actual result: North Macedonia 0 – 2 Scotland · Scotland winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours North Macedonia, negative favours Scotland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (North Macedonia - Scotland)-0.89
Expected total goals2.30
Expected goals North Macedonia / Scotland0.70 / 1.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.3% / 58.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.0%
Over 2.5 goals 40.4%
Over 3.5 goals 20.1%
First half
First-half result (North Macedonia / draw / Scotland)13.9% / 45.6% / 40.5%
A goal in the first half63.7%
Two or more in the first half28.5%
Half-time then full-time
Scotland lead at half-time then Scotland win36.1%
Level at half-time then Scotland win20.5%
Level at half-time then draw18.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from North Macedonia's side
North Macedonia −2.02.7%
North Macedonia −1.753.6%
North Macedonia −1.54.4%
North Macedonia −1.257.1%
North Macedonia −1.09.8%
North Macedonia −0.7512.5%
North Macedonia −0.515.2%
North Macedonia −0.2521.9%
North Macedonia draw no bet (0.0)28.7%
North Macedonia +0.2535.4%
North Macedonia +0.542.2%
North Macedonia +0.7548.6%
North Macedonia +1.055.1%
North Macedonia +1.568.0%
North Macedonia +2.077.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
North Macedonia win6.58
Draw3.71
Scotland win1.73
Over 2.52.48
Under 2.51.68
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
North Macedonia wins by more than 1 goals4%
Scotland wins by more than 1 goals32%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards4.1
2.5+ cards in the match58%