Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Northern Ireland
39%
Draw
33%
Georgia
27%
Actual result: Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Georgia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Northern Ireland, negative favours Georgia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Northern Ireland - Georgia)+0.22
Expected total goals2.00
Expected goals Northern Ireland / Georgia1.11 / 0.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.8% / 59.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.7%
Over 2.5 goals 32.3%
Over 3.5 goals 14.2%
First half
First-half result (Northern Ireland / draw / Georgia)28.0% / 50.9% / 21.0%
A goal in the first half58.4%
Two or more in the first half23.6%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw23.5%
Northern Ireland lead at half-time then Northern Ireland win22.8%
Level at half-time then Northern Ireland win15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Northern Ireland's side
Northern Ireland −2.011.0%
Northern Ireland −1.7513.9%
Northern Ireland −1.516.7%
Northern Ireland −1.2522.3%
Northern Ireland −1.027.9%
Northern Ireland −0.7533.5%
Northern Ireland −0.539.1%
Northern Ireland −0.2547.5%
Northern Ireland draw no bet (0.0)55.8%
Northern Ireland +0.2564.2%
Northern Ireland +0.572.5%
Northern Ireland +0.7576.9%
Northern Ireland +1.081.3%
Northern Ireland +1.590.2%
Northern Ireland +2.093.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Northern Ireland win2.56
Draw2.99
Georgia win3.64
Over 2.53.10
Under 2.51.48
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Northern Ireland wins by more than 1 goals17%
Georgia wins by more than 1 goals10%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%