Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Northern Ireland
31%
Draw
34%
Hungary
35%
Actual result: Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Hungary · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 34%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Northern Ireland, negative favours Hungary) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Northern Ireland - Hungary)-0.08
Expected total goals1.95
Expected goals Northern Ireland / Hungary0.94 / 1.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.4% / 59.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 59.7%
Over 2.5 goals 31.1%
Over 3.5 goals 13.5%
First half
First-half result (Northern Ireland / draw / Hungary)22.9% / 51.7% / 25.3%
A goal in the first half57.6%
Two or more in the first half22.9%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw24.3%
Hungary lead at half-time then Hungary win20.0%
Northern Ireland lead at half-time then Northern Ireland win17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Northern Ireland's side
Northern Ireland −2.07.4%
Northern Ireland −1.759.5%
Northern Ireland −1.511.6%
Northern Ireland −1.2516.4%
Northern Ireland −1.021.2%
Northern Ireland −0.7526.0%
Northern Ireland −0.530.8%
Northern Ireland −0.2539.4%
Northern Ireland draw no bet (0.0)48.0%
Northern Ireland +0.2556.6%
Northern Ireland +0.565.1%
Northern Ireland +0.7570.4%
Northern Ireland +1.075.6%
Northern Ireland +1.586.0%
Northern Ireland +2.091.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Northern Ireland win3.25
Draw2.91
Hungary win2.87
Over 2.53.22
Under 2.51.45
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Northern Ireland wins by more than 1 goals12%
Hungary wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%