Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Norway
61%
Draw
22%
Denmark
17%
Actual result: Norway 3 – 2 Denmark · Norway winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Norway, negative favours Denmark) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Norway - Denmark)+1.04
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Norway / Denmark2.01 / 0.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.3% / 45.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.3%
Over 2.5 goals 57.3%
Over 3.5 goals 34.9%
First half
First-half result (Norway / draw / Denmark)44.8% / 38.4% / 16.7%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half39.3%
Half-time then full-time
Norway lead at half-time then Norway win39.4%
Level at half-time then Norway win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw12.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Norway's side
Norway −2.028.1%
Norway −1.7532.8%
Norway −1.537.4%
Norway −1.2543.3%
Norway −1.049.2%
Norway −0.7555.1%
Norway −0.561.0%
Norway −0.2566.4%
Norway draw no bet (0.0)71.9%
Norway +0.2577.4%
Norway +0.582.8%
Norway +0.7585.6%
Norway +1.088.4%
Norway +1.594.0%
Norway +2.096.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Norway win1.64
Draw4.58
Denmark win5.82
Over 2.51.74
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Norway wins by more than 1 goals37%
Denmark wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%