FIFA World Cup
Norway vs England prediction
Norway
1 – 2
Full-time
England
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Norway
24%
Draw
27%
England
49%
Actual result: Norway 1 – 2 England · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Norway, negative favours England) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Norway - England)-0.55
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Norway / England1.10 / 1.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.4% / 44.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 goals 52.0%
Over 3.5 goals 29.8%
First half
First-half result (Norway / draw / England)20.7% / 43.1% / 36.1%
A goal in the first half69.8%
Two or more in the first half36.4%
Half-time then full-time
England ahead then England win30.2%
level then England win17.0%
level then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Norway
Norway give 2 trái (−2.0)6.3%
Norway give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)8.0%
Norway give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)9.8%
Norway give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)13.3%
Norway give 1 trái (−1.0)16.9%
Norway give 3/4 trái (−0.75)20.5%
Norway give nửa trái (−0.5)24.1%
Norway give 1/4 trái (−0.25)30.9%
Level ball (0.0)37.7%
Norway receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)44.5%
Norway receive nửa trái (+0.5)51.2%
Norway receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)56.8%
Norway receive 1 trái (+1.0)62.3%
Norway receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)73.3%
Norway receive 2 trái (+2.0)81.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Norway win4.15
Draw3.69
England win2.05
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Norway wins by more than 1 goals10%
England wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.1
2.5+ cards in the match36%