Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Norway
41%
Draw
25%
Portugal
33%
Actual result: Norway 1 – 2 Portugal · Portugal winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Norway, negative favours Portugal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Norway - Portugal)+0.20
Expected total goals3.16
Expected goals Norway / Portugal1.68 / 1.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.9% / 36.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 61.2%
Over 3.5 goals 38.9%
First half
First-half result (Norway / draw / Portugal)32.6% / 40.2% / 27.2%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half42.7%
Half-time then full-time
Norway lead at half-time then Norway win25.3%
Portugal lead at half-time then Portugal win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Norway's side
Norway −2.015.6%
Norway −1.7518.8%
Norway −1.522.0%
Norway −1.2526.9%
Norway −1.031.7%
Norway −0.7536.6%
Norway −0.541.5%
Norway −0.2547.9%
Norway draw no bet (0.0)54.2%
Norway +0.2560.6%
Norway +0.567.0%
Norway +0.7571.2%
Norway +1.075.5%
Norway +1.584.1%
Norway +2.089.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Norway win2.41
Draw3.92
Portugal win3.03
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Norway wins by more than 1 goals22%
Portugal wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%