Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Norwich
51%
Draw
26%
Birmingham
23%
Actual result: Norwich 2 – 1 Birmingham · Norwich winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Norwich, negative favours Birmingham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Norwich - Birmingham)+0.61
Expected total goals2.88
Expected goals Norwich / Birmingham1.75 / 1.13
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.1% / 42.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.4%
Over 2.5 goals 54.9%
Over 3.5 goals 32.5%
First half
First-half result (Norwich / draw / Birmingham)37.6% / 41.8% / 20.6%
A goal in the first half71.5%
Two or more in the first half38.3%
Half-time then full-time
Norwich lead at half-time then Norwich win31.6%
Level at half-time then Norwich win17.1%
Level at half-time then draw15.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Norwich's side
Norwich −2.020.5%
Norwich −1.7524.5%
Norwich −1.528.5%
Norwich −1.2534.0%
Norwich −1.039.5%
Norwich −0.7545.1%
Norwich −0.550.6%
Norwich −0.2557.1%
Norwich draw no bet (0.0)63.6%
Norwich +0.2570.1%
Norwich +0.576.5%
Norwich +0.7580.0%
Norwich +1.083.5%
Norwich +1.590.5%
Norwich +2.093.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Norwich win1.98
Draw3.85
Birmingham win4.26
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.52.22
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Norwich wins by more than 1 goals28%
Birmingham wins by more than 1 goals10%