Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Nottm Forest
59%
Draw
25%
Coventry
16%
Actual result: Nottm Forest 0 – 1 Coventry · Coventry winJarvis gave this outcome: 16%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Nottm Forest, negative favours Coventry) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Nottm Forest - Coventry)+0.94
Expected total goals2.60
Expected goals Nottm Forest / Coventry1.77 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.7% / 52.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.2%
Over 2.5 goals 48.1%
Over 3.5 goals 26.3%
First half
First-half result (Nottm Forest / draw / Coventry)42.1% / 42.8% / 15.2%
A goal in the first half68.0%
Two or more in the first half33.5%
Half-time then full-time
Nottm Forest lead at half-time then Nottm Forest win37.3%
Level at half-time then Nottm Forest win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw16.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Nottm Forest's side
Nottm Forest −2.025.0%
Nottm Forest −1.7529.6%
Nottm Forest −1.534.2%
Nottm Forest −1.2540.3%
Nottm Forest −1.046.5%
Nottm Forest −0.7552.6%
Nottm Forest −0.558.7%
Nottm Forest −0.2565.0%
Nottm Forest draw no bet (0.0)71.3%
Nottm Forest +0.2577.5%
Nottm Forest +0.583.8%
Nottm Forest +0.7586.6%
Nottm Forest +1.089.3%
Nottm Forest +1.594.7%
Nottm Forest +2.096.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Nottm Forest win1.70
Draw3.98
Coventry win6.18
Over 2.52.08
Under 2.51.93
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Nottm Forest wins by more than 1 goals34%
Coventry wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match49%