UEFA Europa League
Olympiakos vs Jagiellonia Bialystock prediction
2 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Olympiakos
75%
Draw
17%
Jagiellonia Bialystock
8%
Actual result: Olympiakos 2 – 1 Jagiellonia Bialystock · Olympiakos winJarvis gave this outcome: 75% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Olympiakos, negative favours Jagiellonia Bialystock) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Olympiakos - Jagiellonia Bialystock)+1.72
Expected total goals3.03
Expected goals Olympiakos / Jagiellonia Bialystock2.37 / 0.66
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.2% / 55.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.0%
Over 2.5 goals 58.3%
Over 3.5 goals 35.9%
First half
First-half result (Olympiakos / draw / Jagiellonia Bialystock)55.0% / 35.4% / 9.6%
A goal in the first half73.9%
Two or more in the first half40.1%
Half-time then full-time
Olympiakos lead at half-time then Olympiakos win51.7%
Level at half-time then Olympiakos win21.3%
Level at half-time then draw10.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Olympiakos's side
Olympiakos −2.041.5%
Olympiakos −1.7547.1%
Olympiakos −1.552.6%
Olympiakos −1.2558.3%
Olympiakos −1.063.9%
Olympiakos −0.7569.5%
Olympiakos −0.575.2%
Olympiakos −0.2579.4%
Olympiakos draw no bet (0.0)83.6%
Olympiakos +0.2587.8%
Olympiakos +0.592.0%
Olympiakos +0.7593.5%
Olympiakos +1.095.0%
Olympiakos +1.597.9%
Olympiakos +2.098.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Olympiakos win1.33
Draw5.93
Jagiellonia Bialystock win12.55
Over 2.51.71
Under 2.52.40
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Olympiakos wins by more than 1 goals53%
Jagiellonia Bialystock wins by more than 1 goals2%