Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Orlando City
34%
Nashville SC
40%
Actual result: Orlando City 1 – 0 Nashville SC · Orlando City winJarvis gave this outcome: 34%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Orlando City, negative favours Nashville SC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Orlando City - Nashville SC)-0.14
Expected total goals2.96
Expected goals Orlando City / Nashville SC1.41 / 1.55
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.8% / 39.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.7%
Over 2.5 goals 56.9%
Over 3.5 goals 34.5%
First half
First-half result (Orlando City / draw / Nashville SC)27.1% / 41.8% / 31.0%
A goal in the first half72.4%
Two or more in the first half39.7%
Half-time then full-time
Nashville SC lead at half-time then Nashville SC win24.0%
Orlando City lead at half-time then Orlando City win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Orlando City's side
Orlando City −2.010.9%
Orlando City −1.7513.4%
Orlando City −1.515.9%
Orlando City −1.2520.3%
Orlando City −1.024.7%
Orlando City −0.7529.1%
Orlando City −0.533.5%
Orlando City −0.2540.2%
Orlando City draw no bet (0.0)46.9%
Orlando City +0.2553.6%
Orlando City +0.560.3%
Orlando City +0.7565.1%
Orlando City +1.070.0%
Orlando City +1.579.8%
Orlando City +2.085.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Orlando City win2.98
Draw3.74
Nashville SC win2.52
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Orlando City wins by more than 1 goals16%
Nashville SC wins by more than 1 goals20%
