Outcome probability
Jarvis prediction from BEFORE kickoff. The match has finished but we have not verified the score yet, so there is no comparison below.
Result not verified
Orsomarso
41%
Draw
31%
Quindio
28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Orsomarso, negative favours Quindio) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Orsomarso - Quindio)+0.28
Expected total goals2.42
Expected goals Orsomarso / Quindio1.35 / 1.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.6% / 49.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 goals 43.5%
Over 3.5 goals 22.5%
First half
First-half result (Orsomarso / draw / Quindio)30.5% / 47.2% / 22.4%
A goal in the first half64.9%
Two or more in the first half31.1%
Half-time then full-time
Orsomarso lead at half-time then Orsomarso win24.7%
Level at half-time then draw20.2%
Quindio lead at half-time then Quindio win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Orsomarso's side
Orsomarso −2.013.7%
Orsomarso −1.7516.8%
Orsomarso −1.520.0%
Orsomarso −1.2525.3%
Orsomarso −1.030.6%
Orsomarso −0.7535.8%
Orsomarso −0.541.1%
Orsomarso −0.2548.9%
Orsomarso draw no bet (0.0)56.6%
Orsomarso +0.2564.4%
Orsomarso +0.572.1%
Orsomarso +0.7576.2%
Orsomarso +1.080.3%
Orsomarso +1.588.5%
Orsomarso +2.092.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Orsomarso win2.43
Draw3.22
Quindio win3.59
Over 2.52.30
Under 2.51.77
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Orsomarso wins by more than 1 goals20%
Quindio wins by more than 1 goals11%