Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Palermo
60%
Draw
25%
Sampdoria
15%
Actual result: Palermo 3 – 1 Sampdoria · Palermo winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Palermo, negative favours Sampdoria) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Palermo - Sampdoria)+1.01
Expected total goals2.67
Expected goals Palermo / Sampdoria1.84 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.9%
Over 2.5 goals 50.0%
Over 3.5 goals 28.0%
First half
First-half result (Palermo / draw / Sampdoria)43.1% / 42.3% / 14.6%
A goal in the first half68.9%
Two or more in the first half35.0%
Half-time then full-time
Palermo lead at half-time then Palermo win38.5%
Level at half-time then Palermo win20.0%
Level at half-time then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Palermo's side
Palermo −2.026.5%
Palermo −1.7531.3%
Palermo −1.536.0%
Palermo −1.2542.0%
Palermo −1.048.0%
Palermo −0.7554.0%
Palermo −0.560.0%
Palermo −0.2566.2%
Palermo draw no bet (0.0)72.4%
Palermo +0.2578.6%
Palermo +0.584.8%
Palermo +0.7587.3%
Palermo +1.089.9%
Palermo +1.595.0%
Palermo +2.096.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Palermo win1.67
Draw4.04
Sampdoria win6.58
Over 2.52.00
Under 2.52.00
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Palermo wins by more than 1 goals36%
Sampdoria wins by more than 1 goals5%