Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Peterborough
62%
Draw
21%
Colchester
16%
Actual result: Peterborough 3 – 1 Colchester · Peterborough winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Peterborough, negative favours Colchester) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Peterborough - Colchester)+1.16
Expected total goals3.37
Expected goals Peterborough / Colchester2.26 / 1.10
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.9% / 39.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.0%
Over 2.5 goals 65.3%
Over 3.5 goals 43.4%
First half
First-half result (Peterborough / draw / Colchester)46.3% / 37.5% / 16.2%
A goal in the first half76.6%
Two or more in the first half46.1%
Half-time then full-time
Peterborough lead at half-time then Peterborough win41.2%
Level at half-time then Peterborough win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Peterborough's side
Peterborough −2.031.5%
Peterborough −1.7536.2%
Peterborough −1.541.0%
Peterborough −1.2546.3%
Peterborough −1.051.7%
Peterborough −0.7557.1%
Peterborough −0.562.4%
Peterborough −0.2567.8%
Peterborough draw no bet (0.0)73.2%
Peterborough +0.2578.5%
Peterborough +0.583.9%
Peterborough +0.7586.3%
Peterborough +1.088.8%
Peterborough +1.593.7%
Peterborough +2.096.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Peterborough win1.60
Draw4.67
Colchester win6.20
Over 2.51.53
Under 2.52.89
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Peterborough wins by more than 1 goals41%
Colchester wins by more than 1 goals6%