US MLS

Philadelphia vs Seattle Sounders prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Philadelphia vs Seattle Sounders (US MLS), 26/07/2026, finished 1-0: Philadelphia won. Before the match Jarvis gave Philadelphia 50%, the draw 26% and Seattle Sounders 24%; the actual result had a 50% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Philadelphia

50%

Draw

26%

Seattle Sounders

24%

Actual result: Philadelphia 1 – 0 Seattle Sounders · Philadelphia winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Philadelphia, negative favours Seattle Sounders) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Philadelphia - Seattle Sounders)+0.61

Expected total goals2.93

Expected goals Philadelphia / Seattle Sounders1.77 / 1.16

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.2% / 41.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.2%

Over 2.5 goals 56.0%

Over 3.5 goals 33.7%

First half

First-half result (Philadelphia / draw / Seattle Sounders)37.5% / 41.7% / 20.8%

A goal in the first half71.9%

Two or more in the first half39.2%

Half-time then full-time

Philadelphia lead at half-time then Philadelphia win31.5%

Level at half-time then Philadelphia win17.0%

Level at half-time then draw15.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Philadelphia's side

Philadelphia −2.020.6%

Philadelphia −1.7524.5%

Philadelphia −1.528.5%

Philadelphia −1.2533.9%

Philadelphia −1.039.4%

Philadelphia −0.7544.9%

Philadelphia −0.550.3%

Philadelphia −0.2556.8%

Philadelphia draw no bet (0.0)63.3%

Philadelphia +0.2569.8%

Philadelphia +0.576.3%

Philadelphia +0.7579.7%

Philadelphia +1.083.2%

Philadelphia +1.590.2%

Philadelphia +2.093.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Philadelphia win1.99

Draw3.86

Seattle Sounders win4.21

Over 2.51.78

Under 2.52.27

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Philadelphia wins by more than 1 goals28%

Seattle Sounders wins by more than 1 goals10%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match