Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Plzen
38%
Draw
28%
Union St Gilloise
34%
Actual result: Plzen 0 – 3 Union St Gilloise · Union St Gilloise winJarvis gave this outcome: 34%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Plzen, negative favours Union St Gilloise) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Plzen - Union St Gilloise)+0.09
Expected total goals2.97
Expected goals Plzen / Union St Gilloise1.53 / 1.44
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.4% / 38.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.3%
Over 2.5 goals 57.0%
Over 3.5 goals 34.6%
First half
First-half result (Plzen / draw / Union St Gilloise)29.9% / 42.8% / 27.3%
A goal in the first half72.0%
Two or more in the first half40.3%
Half-time then full-time
Plzen lead at half-time then Plzen win23.1%
Union St Gilloise lead at half-time then Union St Gilloise win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw16.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Plzen's side
Plzen −2.013.6%
Plzen −1.7516.6%
Plzen −1.519.5%
Plzen −1.2524.2%
Plzen −1.028.9%
Plzen −0.7533.5%
Plzen −0.538.2%
Plzen −0.2545.1%
Plzen draw no bet (0.0)52.1%
Plzen +0.2559.0%
Plzen +0.566.0%
Plzen +0.7570.3%
Plzen +1.074.7%
Plzen +1.583.4%
Plzen +2.088.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Plzen win2.62
Draw3.60
Union St Gilloise win2.94
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Plzen wins by more than 1 goals20%
Union St Gilloise wins by more than 1 goals17%