Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Poland
61%
Draw
22%
Romania
16%
Actual result: Poland 6 – 0 Romania · Poland winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Poland, negative favours Romania) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Poland - Romania)+1.07
Expected total goals3.00
Expected goals Poland / Romania2.04 / 0.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.6% / 45.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.9%
Over 2.5 goals 57.7%
Over 3.5 goals 35.3%
First half
First-half result (Poland / draw / Romania)45.0% / 38.9% / 16.1%
A goal in the first half73.3%
Two or more in the first half39.9%
Half-time then full-time
Poland lead at half-time then Poland win39.9%
Level at half-time then Poland win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw13.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Poland's side
Poland −2.028.8%
Poland −1.7533.5%
Poland −1.538.2%
Poland −1.2544.0%
Poland −1.049.8%
Poland −0.7555.6%
Poland −0.561.4%
Poland −0.2566.9%
Poland draw no bet (0.0)72.5%
Poland +0.2578.1%
Poland +0.583.7%
Poland +0.7586.3%
Poland +1.088.9%
Poland +1.594.2%
Poland +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Poland win1.63
Draw4.49
Romania win6.12
Over 2.51.73
Under 2.52.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Poland wins by more than 1 goals38%
Romania wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%