Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Porto
31%
Draw
31%
Benfica
38%
Actual result: Porto 3 – 1 Benfica · Porto winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Porto, negative favours Benfica) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Porto - Benfica)-0.13
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals Porto / Benfica1.20 / 1.33
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.6% / 46.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.1%
Over 2.5 goals 46.5%
Over 3.5 goals 25.0%
First half
First-half result (Porto / draw / Benfica)24.8% / 46.7% / 28.5%
A goal in the first half66.3%
Two or more in the first half33.3%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win22.4%
Level at half-time then draw19.8%
Porto lead at half-time then Porto win18.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Porto's side
Porto −2.09.4%
Porto −1.7511.7%
Porto −1.514.1%
Porto −1.2518.4%
Porto −1.022.8%
Porto −0.7527.1%
Porto −0.531.5%
Porto −0.2539.2%
Porto draw no bet (0.0)47.0%
Porto +0.2554.7%
Porto +0.562.5%
Porto +0.7567.4%
Porto +1.072.2%
Porto +1.581.9%
Porto +2.087.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Porto win3.18
Draw3.23
Benfica win2.67
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Porto wins by more than 1 goals14%
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals18%