Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Portsmouth
40%
Draw
28%
Cardiff
32%
Actual result: Portsmouth 2 – 0 Cardiff · Portsmouth winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Portsmouth, negative favours Cardiff) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Portsmouth - Cardiff)+0.17
Expected total goals2.86
Expected goals Portsmouth / Cardiff1.52 / 1.34
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.2% / 40.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.4%
Over 2.5 goals 54.5%
Over 3.5 goals 32.1%
First half
First-half result (Portsmouth / draw / Cardiff)30.8% / 43.1% / 26.0%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half38.3%
Half-time then full-time
Portsmouth lead at half-time then Portsmouth win24.1%
Cardiff lead at half-time then Cardiff win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Portsmouth's side
Portsmouth −2.014.1%
Portsmouth −1.7517.2%
Portsmouth −1.520.3%
Portsmouth −1.2525.2%
Portsmouth −1.030.1%
Portsmouth −0.7535.0%
Portsmouth −0.539.9%
Portsmouth −0.2546.9%
Portsmouth draw no bet (0.0)53.8%
Portsmouth +0.2560.8%
Portsmouth +0.567.8%
Portsmouth +0.7572.1%
Portsmouth +1.076.4%
Portsmouth +1.585.0%
Portsmouth +2.089.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Portsmouth win2.50
Draw3.59
Cardiff win3.10
Over 2.51.84
Under 2.52.20
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Portsmouth wins by more than 1 goals20%
Cardiff wins by more than 1 goals15%