English Sky Bet Championship

Portsmouth vs Derby prediction

0 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Portsmouth vs Derby (English Sky Bet Championship), 02/09/2026, finished 0-2: Derby won. Before the match Jarvis gave Portsmouth 48%, the draw 29% and Derby 24%; the actual result had a 24% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Portsmouth

48%

Draw

29%

Derby

24%

Actual result: Portsmouth 0 – 2 Derby · Derby winJarvis gave this outcome: 24%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Portsmouth, negative favours Derby) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Portsmouth - Derby)+0.50

Expected total goals2.47

Expected goals Portsmouth / Derby1.49 / 0.98

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.7% / 50.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.9%

Over 2.5 goals 44.9%

Over 3.5 goals 23.6%

First half

First-half result (Portsmouth / draw / Derby)34.7% / 45.3% / 20.0%

A goal in the first half66.1%

Two or more in the first half31.5%

Half-time then full-time

Portsmouth lead at half-time then Portsmouth win29.0%

Level at half-time then draw18.4%

Level at half-time then Portsmouth win17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Portsmouth's side

Portsmouth −2.017.1%

Portsmouth −1.7520.8%

Portsmouth −1.524.5%

Portsmouth −1.2530.3%

Portsmouth −1.036.0%

Portsmouth −0.7541.8%

Portsmouth −0.547.6%

Portsmouth −0.2554.7%

Portsmouth draw no bet (0.0)61.9%

Portsmouth +0.2569.0%

Portsmouth +0.576.2%

Portsmouth +0.7579.9%

Portsmouth +1.083.6%

Portsmouth +1.591.0%

Portsmouth +2.094.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Portsmouth win2.10

Draw3.49

Derby win4.20

Over 2.52.23

Under 2.51.81

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Portsmouth wins by more than 1 goals25%

Derby wins by more than 1 goals9%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match