Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Portugal
85%
Draw
10%
Wales
4%
Actual result: Portugal 1 – 0 Wales · Portugal winJarvis gave this outcome: 85% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Portugal, negative favours Wales) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Portugal - Wales)+2.43
Expected total goals3.63
Expected goals Portugal / Wales3.03 / 0.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.1% / 56.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.9%
Over 2.5 goals 70.3%
Over 3.5 goals 49.2%
First half
First-half result (Portugal / draw / Wales)65.3% / 27.7% / 7.0%
A goal in the first half80.4%
Two or more in the first half48.8%
Half-time then full-time
Portugal lead at half-time then Portugal win63.0%
Level at half-time then Portugal win19.6%
Level at half-time then draw6.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Portugal's side
Portugal −2.056.7%
Portugal −1.7562.0%
Portugal −1.567.4%
Portugal −1.2571.8%
Portugal −1.076.3%
Portugal −0.7580.7%
Portugal −0.585.2%
Portugal −0.2587.8%
Portugal draw no bet (0.0)90.4%
Portugal +0.2593.0%
Portugal +0.595.5%
Portugal +0.7596.4%
Portugal +1.097.3%
Portugal +1.599.0%
Portugal +2.099.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Portugal win1.17
Draw9.66
Wales win22.41
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Portugal wins by more than 1 goals67%
Wales wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%