Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Preston
41%
Draw
30%
Blackburn
29%
Actual result: Preston 2 – 1 Blackburn · Preston winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Preston, negative favours Blackburn) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Preston - Blackburn)+0.24
Expected total goals2.48
Expected goals Preston / Blackburn1.36 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.9% / 48.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.2%
Over 3.5 goals 23.9%
First half
First-half result (Preston / draw / Blackburn)30.3% / 46.4% / 23.3%
A goal in the first half65.9%
Two or more in the first half32.1%
Half-time then full-time
Preston lead at half-time then Preston win24.3%
Level at half-time then draw19.5%
Blackburn lead at half-time then Blackburn win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Preston's side
Preston −2.013.5%
Preston −1.7516.6%
Preston −1.519.7%
Preston −1.2524.9%
Preston −1.030.1%
Preston −0.7535.3%
Preston −0.540.5%
Preston −0.2548.1%
Preston draw no bet (0.0)55.7%
Preston +0.2563.3%
Preston +0.570.9%
Preston +0.7575.1%
Preston +1.079.3%
Preston +1.587.7%
Preston +2.092.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Preston win2.47
Draw3.29
Blackburn win3.44
Over 2.52.21
Under 2.51.82
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Preston wins by more than 1 goals20%
Blackburn wins by more than 1 goals12%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%