Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
PSV
74%
Draw
14%
Heerenveen
12%
Actual result: PSV 2 – 0 Heerenveen · PSV winJarvis gave this outcome: 74% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours PSV, negative favours Heerenveen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (PSV - Heerenveen)+1.88
Expected total goals4.39
Expected goals PSV / Heerenveen3.13 / 1.26
Both teams to score (yes / no)68.6% / 31.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 93.4%
Over 2.5 goals 81.4%
Over 3.5 goals 63.9%
First half
First-half result (PSV / draw / Heerenveen)57.5% / 27.8% / 14.6%
A goal in the first half85.9%
Two or more in the first half59.0%
Half-time then full-time
PSV lead at half-time then PSV win52.7%
Level at half-time then PSV win17.2%
Heerenveen lead at half-time then Heerenveen win6.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from PSV's side
PSV −2.046.3%
PSV −1.7551.1%
PSV −1.555.9%
PSV −1.2560.5%
PSV −1.065.1%
PSV −0.7569.7%
PSV −0.574.3%
PSV −0.2577.8%
PSV draw no bet (0.0)81.3%
PSV +0.2584.7%
PSV +0.588.2%
PSV +0.7590.0%
PSV +1.091.9%
PSV +1.595.5%
PSV +2.097.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
PSV win1.35
Draw7.21
Heerenveen win8.47
Over 2.51.23
Under 2.55.38
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
PSV wins by more than 1 goals56%
Heerenveen wins by more than 1 goals4%