Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
PSV
81%
Draw
11%
Sparta Rotterdam
8%
Actual result: PSV 4 – 1 Sparta Rotterdam · PSV winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours PSV, negative favours Sparta Rotterdam) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (PSV - Sparta Rotterdam)+2.30
Expected total goals4.43
Expected goals PSV / Sparta Rotterdam3.36 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.0% / 37.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 93.3%
Over 2.5 goals 81.8%
Over 3.5 goals 64.5%
First half
First-half result (PSV / draw / Sparta Rotterdam)63.5% / 24.6% / 12.0%
A goal in the first half86.8%
Two or more in the first half58.7%
Half-time then full-time
PSV lead at half-time then PSV win59.5%
Level at half-time then PSV win16.8%
Level at half-time then draw5.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from PSV's side
PSV −2.054.0%
PSV −1.7558.9%
PSV −1.563.7%
PSV −1.2568.0%
PSV −1.072.3%
PSV −0.7576.6%
PSV −0.581.0%
PSV −0.2583.7%
PSV draw no bet (0.0)86.4%
PSV +0.2589.1%
PSV +0.591.8%
PSV +0.7593.2%
PSV +1.094.6%
PSV +1.597.4%
PSV +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
PSV win1.24
Draw9.25
Sparta Rotterdam win12.15
Over 2.51.22
Under 2.55.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
PSV wins by more than 1 goals63%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by more than 1 goals3%